Post by WelshChappie on Aug 6, 2014 20:43:54 GMT -8
Today I am trying to decide how Zodiac can be so lucky time and time again to not be caught when you consider where the scene's of his crimes are located.
Lets imagine for a moment that the Zodiac Crimes had never happened and there was no Zodiac Killer. I then log onto 'Theodore R. Bundy' blog and declare him a total idiot and state that I am planning a murder spree of my own and want to ask members what they think the likelihood is, or the odds of me, carrying this sequence out from start to end without being apprehended. Then I laid out my 10 Month Forecast:
December 20, 2015: Start Rampage by prowling Lake Herman Rd until opportunity presents itself at which time I will fire approx. ten rounds at approx. 11:20/11:25pm before driving away down a long and winding dark road/lane. I shall strike within an opportunistic window of 7 minutes and will rely on luck that no vehicle pass by the scene while I am letting led fly and also hope that no quick response by LE see's my immediate capture.
Six Month Sabbatical.
July 4: Troll Columbus Parkway waiting and around midnight, turn onto Blue Rk Springs Parking Lot, in full view of Columbus Prkway, exit my vehicle and shoot the S**t out of a car containing two occupants while taking time out to reload my 9MM Luger. While I am doing this, I will once again call upon my friend hope and I'll simply hope that no other vehicle comes down Columbus Prkway and swings into the Springs Paring lot, because three vehicles have minutes ago left and one will turn into the lot a couple minutes after I drive away. Again, window of time to strike while no witnesses be present is several minutes. I will pick this exact tiny time frame and this will again be luck and law of averages seeming to favour me as if coming from the Divine. Then I will simply Drive away to Tul & Spgs rd payphone and call cops explaining that "If you'll go one mile East on Columbus Prkway..." and then disappear.
Two Month Sabbatical.
Sept. 27: Stake out Island at Lake Berryessa until early evening in daylight hours when I then don my executioners hood, walk to the middle of the little Island holding & pointing a pistol at two young people and order one bind the other and stand around waiting before myself binding the second. I then stab both several times oblivious to their being a potential for fishing boats to come by this very Island as several have already while victims are there alone and a just a minute or two after I have walked out of sight and away, a boat will come by. Again, the chances of this happening in this sequence with me picking the exact time frame to act when boats passing by will cease, only to immediately resume after I walk away would be so unlikely that some would start attributing this unbelievably long run of brilliant lucky break one after another seems more Divine Intervention to assist Lunatic Zodiac because to happen by luck and random chance alone would crown Mr Z The legitimate, Universally recognised, Undisputed Heavyweight Champion of Lucky Bastards of the World. Then after this stabbing act itself, I will once again, as with Lake Herman, be required to drive miles and miles on another two lane road because there's only one way in and one way out of Berryessa and again simply hope that for the many miles before I turn off into obscurity that no responding cop see's me driving down the Mountain and turns to follow me to stop me. What are my chances of this?
Two Week Sabbatical.
Oct 11. Now at my wits end and depressed that I still have not been captured in my first three outings, I now decide that I must kill my next 'Victom' in the middle of a street, no wait, at a 4 way Intersection just to maximise the possibility for a passing vehicle to see me paying the driver of my Taxi with a bullet to the head. Then I'll faff about in the cab wiping down the dash, door interior etc etc even though I have gloves with me but don't want to know about any gloves, I will then exit and walk around the Cab as thought I am offering witnesses a view of me from all sides & angles while again faffing around with a white cloth. Then I shall walk, ever so slowly, away down Cherry St where I will ignore the entrance to the dark & deserted Presidio and instead, turn right and start descending the Jackson Street hill. I will rely on the dispatchers of the Prowl Cars to be told the word 'White Male' and interpret this complex sequence of words as 'Black Male' in order to pull off another dumbfounding piece of escapology on the night if a patrol car happens to approach. Should this happen, then I'll simply do my absolute best to appear suspicious and wanting to avoid them as the approach by stumbling and limping al over the place, immediately put one's head down to look at the floor avoiding having my face seen. Finally, I will turn and dash up some steps and proceed on down the driveway of a home. Then I'll simply go home and decide that I've had it with this, I am no longer going to continue my Rampage because the other team are not playing.
Move Zodiac persona to Inactive State in Action, but continue to communicate infrequently before retiring my character altogether.
Now, imagine that is what I gave you as a proposal as to my upcoming sequence of murderous events. What would you advise me based only on my chances of pulling this off without being caught, held accountable and imprisoned? What odds would I get from a bookie I wonder? Around 5000 to 1 against? Or 10.000 to 1 even? One in Ten Thousand attempts at taking this challenge will result in successful apprehension avoidance. Or is it 1 in 100.000 will succeed in an identical scenario if there is no other man made influence and cheating going on, ie, nobody is assisting his escape or no factor is playing a role in helping his scape such as his being a cop himself? Who knows?
Anyone who, like me, loves 80's TV shows will remember a Drama Series called 'The Equalizer' starring Edward Woodward. In this most brilliant of series, the main Character places an add in the local paper offering the following....
"Odds against you? Need help? Call the Equalizer. 212 555 4200."
Well I'm giving this Advert a rehash for the 21st Century SF Chronicle to print, and it's this:
"Odds against you? Need help? Call the San Francisco Zodiac. 408 340 3712."
Odds, The law of averages, The laws of random chance and The Theory of Probability do not apply in this man's everyday decisions and choices. This man could, at any second, decide to ignore and defy the Laws of Physics and Gravity and will simply float into the air and fly away over the Golden Gate Bridge and into eternity. The theory of probability is swatted aside by this man for whom no laws, no matter the type, apply.
Based on the locations he picked to strike, their availability and means by which he could make his escape, culminating in his walking straight into the headlights of a responding police car and it's cops, then given he's managed to already pull off several escapes from places where risk factor for capture is at it's maximum then the law of averages surely would decide that his luck will now expire and his arrogance and ego contribute to his downfall and capture? The law of probability surely will dictate that if you shoot a cabbie in the head and walk away turning the corner only to have a police car heading rite for you after an eagle eyed witness reported your little event as you carried it out then surely, almost a certainty, the probability says your run as 'The Luniac' is about to come to an end? After random Chance has afforded you lucky break after lucky break, surely the law of averages has to now say you are way overdue a slice of bad luck for him, good for everyone else? How did this person or people Manage to pull this off?
Finally to end this rant, I ask anyone to offer me odds on me successfully pulling off the above scenario without being stopped by the Blue Meanies or some other hurdle?